Show me your Q1 and I'll show you mine
How comparing Q1 2026 to Q1 2025 reveals ongoing shifts in the start-up funding landscape in Africa
I initially resisted the urge to write a Q1 2026 post because I would have defaulted to a long-form analysis that risked missing the point. After some mulling over, I have decided to produce a simple table comparing Q1 2026 to Q1 2025, and to summarise briefly how it illustrates a few ongoing shifts in the ecosystem:
While the total funding raised (exc. exits) seems healthy overall (+27% YoY), the growth is exclusively due to a debt boom (6x) that compensates the decline in equity raised (-27%).
While overall funding grew YoY, the number of deals suffered a sharp decline (-34%) driven in particular by a scarcity of smaller deals: the number of $100k-$500k deals was halved over the period (73>32, 44>18 if we focus exclusively on equity deals). Meanwhile, both the number of $10m+ deals (14>18) and their share of total funding raised grew (63%>82%). In this context, the median deal size more than doubled.
On the positive side, there were twice as many exits in Q1 2026 compared to the previous year (12 vs. 6).
Climate Tech investments have also grown over the period ($124m/$184m), despite a drop in funding going to the Energy sector ($84m>$34m), which has historically driven the Climate Tech numbers up. Its share grew from 26% to 31% YoY. Overall, fintech continues to hold the #1 spot.
Frustratingly, the funding dynamics in disfavour of smaller deals meant that women missed out on investments. 20 deals involved a startup with a woman CEO and/or at least a woman co-founder in Q1 2026, compared to 46 in Q1 2025. They also raised less than half the amount they had raised a year ago ($111m>$49m), meaning their share of total funding fell sharply (24%>8%).
Not on the table are things that are pretty much BaU. For instance geographically, the number of countries with at least one $100k+ deal over the period is stable (19), and the share of the Big Four is fairly comparable in terms of total raised (82%>72%) and number of deals (61%>54%), though it is decreasing.
We’ll leave it there for today. But many of you have access to the full underlying data through your database subscription, so you can explore other cuts and metrics. If you’re not yet a subscriber and want to join in, you can do so for under $20/month using this link. As always, if you spot something interesting, send it our way. Bye for now, Max
The debt-masking equity collapse is the real story and most observers will miss it. A 6x debt surge against a 27% equity decline is not a healthy market. It is the market quietly repricing risk. Median deal size doubling is what happens when the bottom half of founders stop being fundable.
Thanks as always for sharing guys!